Tropical Cyclone Activity
Atlantic Tropical Outlook

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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 280513 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Philippe, located several hundred miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL91): Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in association with an area of low pressure located roughly halfway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, as long as this system remains far enough removed from Tropical Storm Philippe to its west. A tropical depression or storm is expected to form in the next day or so while the system moves northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Bucci
Summary for Tropical Storm Philippe (AT2/AL172023)
...DISORGANIZED PHILIPPE MOVING SLOWLY... ...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 27 the center of Philippe was located near 18.2, -54.5 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Tropical Storm Philippe Public Advisory Number 19
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 27 2023 000 WTNT32 KNHC 280235 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 27 2023 ...DISORGANIZED PHILIPPE MOVING SLOWLY... ...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 54.5W ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 54.5 West. Philippe is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slow west-northwestward to northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so, followed by a slower general westward motion by this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, with slow weakening forecast this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) primarily to the east of the center. Saildrone (1069) located well north-northeast of the center of Philippe has reported a peak one-minute wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 48 mph (78 km/h) within the past few hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Philippe may produce 1 to 3 inches of rain across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and portions of Puerto Rico Saturday through Monday. Heavy rainfall from Philippe may produce isolated urban and small stream flooding impacts. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Advisory Number 19
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 28 2023 000 WTNT22 KNHC 280234 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 0300 UTC THU SEP 28 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 54.5W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 120SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 54.5W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 54.2W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.7N 55.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.0N 56.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.0N 57.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.0N 58.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 10NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.7N 59.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 18.5N 60.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 18.5N 62.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 18.5N 63.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 54.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Discussion Number 19
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 27 2023 000 WTNT42 KNHC 280235 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 27 2023 Deep convection has persisted around the eastern portion of Philippe's circulation this evening, however there is not much evidence of curved bands. The low-level center may have reformed or become slightly better defined just to the west of the main convective mass since the previous advisory. There has been no recent microwave imagery to gain a better look at the cyclone's structure and scatterometer appears likely to miss the center this evening. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T3.0 (45 kt) and T2.5 (35 kt) from TAFB and SAB, respectively. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory, in deference to the earlier scatterometer data and latest TAFB estimate. The track forecast for Philippe remains quite complicated, and it is very dependent on the future intensity and vertical depth of the cyclone. The current disorganized structure of Philippe and its present environment of moderate southwesterly shear is likely to inhibit strengthening over the next couple of days. The main question is whether Philippe weakens and becomes more vertically shallow or if it maintains some vertical coherence during that time. If it becomes vertically shallow, Philippe is likely to move generally westward or west-southwestward within the low-level steering flow. If it remains more vertically deep, the cyclone is likely to move little as it remains to the southeast of a mid-level ridge. Another complicating factor is a disturbance (AL91) to Philippe's southeast. The latest GFS run moves that system close enough to Philippe that binary interaction occurs between the two systems. However this run appears to have initialized Philippe stronger than it actually is, which may have led to the solution where Philippe remains the dominate system. Meanwhile, the ECMWF weakens Philippe and keeps more separation between the two systems, taking a weaker Philippe westward or west-southwestward. The NHC forecast currently favors the latter scenario, but there is an unusually large amount of uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast. In general, the guidance is a bit slower this cycle and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The new track forecast is not as slow as the consensus aids, but is a blend of the previous official forecast and the latest consensus models. It would not be surprising if additional adjustments to the track forecast are required in subsequent advisories. As mentioned above, moderate southwesterly shear and a slightly drier airmass ahead of Philippe are likely to inhibit significant convective organization of the cyclone at least during the next day or two. That is likely to cause some gradual weakening, and the NHC intensity forecast follows that thinking and calls for the system to weaken during that time. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to whether Philippe weakens and becomes a remnant low later in the period, or moves little and remains a tropical cyclone. The latest forecast maintains continuity from the previous few advisories and calls for Philippe to become a remnant low, but this is a low confidence forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 18.2N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 18.7N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 19.0N 56.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 19.0N 57.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 19.0N 58.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 30/1200Z 18.7N 59.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 18.5N 60.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 18.5N 62.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0000Z 18.5N 63.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
Tropical Storm Philippe Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 28 2023 000 FONT12 KNHC 280235 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 0300 UTC THU SEP 28 2023 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) SAINT JOHN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Philippe Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 28 Sep 2023 02:36:29 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 28 Sep 2023 03:23:00 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 280514 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 27 2023 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Southwestern East Pacific: A tropical wave continues to produce an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some development of this system remains possible over the next day or two while it moves generally westward at about 15 mph. By late Friday, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for further development before the system moves into the Central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Bucci
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No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 28 Sep 2023 06:46:29 GMT