Tropical Cyclone Activity
Atlantic Tropical Outlook
Pacific Tropical Outlook
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
951
ABNT20 KNHC 271724
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Adams/Papin
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 27 Jul 2026 20:55:59 GMT
Eastern Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271718
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fausto, located in the Central Pacific several hundred miles east of
the Hawaiian Islands, and on Hurricane Genevieve, located several
hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Summary for Hurricane Genevieve (EP2/EP072026)
...MAJOR HURRICANE GENEVIEVE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM MST Mon Jul 27 the center of Genevieve was located near 16.6, -113.9 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 934 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.
Hurricane Genevieve Public Advisory Number 14
Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Jul 27 2026 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 272048 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Genevieve Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026 200 PM MST Mon Jul 27 2026 ...MAJOR HURRICANE GENEVIEVE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 113.9W ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Genevieve was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 113.9 West. Genevieve is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Genevieve is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible this afternoon, but steady weakening is forecast to begin by tonight through the remainder of the week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and southern portions of the Baja California Peninsula, and will spread northward along the remainder of the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula by tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Adams/Papin
Hurricane Genevieve Forecast Advisory Number 14
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 27 2026 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 272048 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026 2100 UTC MON JUL 27 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 113.9W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. 4 M SEAS....300NE 240SE 240SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 113.9W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 113.5W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.5N 115.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.2N 116.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.7N 118.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.3N 119.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.1N 121.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.0N 124.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 22.6N 129.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 24.6N 134.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 113.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ADAMS/PAPIN
Hurricane Genevieve Forecast Discussion Number 14
Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Jul 27 2026 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 272050 TCDEP2 Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026 200 PM MST Mon Jul 27 2026 After some warming of the eyewall cloud top temperatures this morning, the infrared satellite presentation of Major Hurricane Genevieve has improved over the past couple of hours, with colder cloud tops wrapping around the western side of the clear, symmetric, and very warm eye. It is possible Genevieve could soon undergo an eyewall replacement cycle, though there have been no recent microwave images to definitively determine whether one is underway. The latest subjective intensity estimates range from 120-130 kt, with the 1800 UTC estimate from TAFB at 6.5/127 kt. The initial intensity has been set at 130 kt for this advisory. The hurricane is being steered by a strong mid-level ridge centered over the central United States, and is moving toward the northwest around 310/11 kt. Genevieve is forecast to slow down slightly over the next 48 h or so as the ridge weakens and progresses eastward. A faster west-northwestward motion is expected late this week into this weekend as a mid-level ridge builds to the northwest of the cyclone. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and lies near the HCCA corrected consensus. Colder cloud tops surrounding the eye indicate some fluctuations in intensity could occur with Genevieve this afternoon. However, as the hurricane moves toward the northwest and west-northwest this week, a steady weakening trend is expected as it encounters cooler waters and gradually drier mid-level relative humidity. By early Thursday, Genevieve is forecast to move north of 20N and encounter waters cooler than 26 C, leading to a faster weakening trend for late this week into this weekend. The latest NHC forecast calls for Genevieve to become post-tropical by 120 h, and this is consistent with current model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 16.6N 113.9W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 17.5N 115.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 18.2N 116.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 18.7N 118.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 19.3N 119.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 20.1N 121.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 21.0N 124.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 31/1800Z 22.6N 129.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 24.6N 134.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Adams/Papin
Hurricane Genevieve Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 27 2026 000
FOPZ12 KNHC 272049
PWSEP2
HURRICANE GENEVIEVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072026
2100 UTC MON JUL 27 2026
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLA CLARION 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ISLA CLARION 50 53 8(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61)
ISLA CLARION 64 6 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
20N 115W 34 2 17(19) X(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
20N 120W 34 X X( X) 30(30) 51(81) 10(91) X(91) X(91)
20N 120W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 41(44) 20(64) X(64) X(64)
20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 13(37) X(37) X(37)
20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 6(30) 1(31)
20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15)
25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18)
25N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
$$
FORECASTER ADAMS/PAPIN
Hurricane Genevieve Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 27 Jul 2026 20:52:15 GMT